Research

In addition to the thematically-organized summary here, which also includes reports and working papers / preprints, you can find my peer-reviewed research via ORCID, ResearchGate, or Google Scholar. My CV is linked below, along with sample interactive work and science communication such as blog posts and podcast appearances.

Understanding relationships between socioeconomic conditions and environment (e.g., protected areas, tropical forests), and assessing whether proposed interventions can benefit both

Doctoral dissertation:

Bernhard, K.P. (2025). Risk, Livelihood Decisions, and Resilience in the Greater Virunga Transboundary Landscape. PhD Dissertation, Penn State University. Open Access Penn State ETDA.

Peer-reviewed research articles:

Bernhard, K. P., Shapiro, A. C., D’annunzio, R., & Kabuanga, J. M. (2024). Transboundary Central African protected area complexes demonstrate varied effectiveness in reducing predicted risk of deforestation attributed to small-scale agriculture. Remote Sensing. DOI.

Bernhard, K.P., Shapiro, A.C. & Hunt, C.A. (2023). Drivers of tropical deforestation: a global review of methodological approaches and analytical scales. Biodiversity and Conservation. DOI.

Akayezu, P., Ndagijimana, I., Dushimumukiza, M.C, Bernhard, K.P., & Groen, T.A. (2022). Evaluating the impact of the tourism revenue sharing program on community livelihoods and forest dependency around Nyungwe National Park, Rwanda. Frontiers in Conservation Science, Human-Wildlife Interactions. DOI.

Funded by National Geographic Society Explorer Grant (P. Akayezu).

Featured in Frontiers in Conservation Science e-book Women in Human-Wildlife Dynamics.

Bernhard, K.P., Sabuhoro, E. & Dattilo, J. (2022). Colonial influence on local relationships with leisure and environment in East Africa: Intersecting two literatures to reflect on domestic ecotourism. International Journal of Sociology of Leisure. DOI.

Sabuhoro, E., Wright, B.A., Munanura, I.E., Mkumbo P., Bernhard, K.P., & Mgonja, J.T. (2022). Livelihood security and perceived prevalence of illegal activities threatening mountain gorilla conservation in East Africa’s Virunga Landscape. Land, 11 (9): 1509. DOI.

Shapiro, A.C., Bernhard, K.P., Zenobi, S., Aguilar-Amuchastegui, N., & d'Annunzio, R. (2021). Proximate causes of forest degradation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo vary in space and time. Frontiers in Conservation Science, Global Biodiversity Threats, 2 (28). DOI.

Featured in Frontiers in Conservation Science annual Top 10 Highlights publication, available here.

Bernhard, K.P., Smith, T.E.L., Sabuhoro, E., Nyandwi, E., & Munanura, I.E. (2020). Effects of integrated conservation-development projects on unauthorized resource use in Rwanda’s Volcanoes National Park: A mixed-methods spatiotemporal approach. Oryx: The International Journal of Conservation, 1-2. DOI.

Blog post for this article available here.

Munanura, I.E., Backman, K.F., Sabuhoro, E., & Bernhard, K.P. (2019). The potential of tourism benefits to reduce forest dependence behavior of impoverished residents adjacent to Volcanoes National Park in Rwanda. Tourism Planning & Development. DOI.

Manuscripts in preparation, working papers:

Bernhard, K.P. (2023, working paper). Effect of refugee influxes on land cover metrics: Assessing NDVI change in two Ugandan refugee settlements adjacent to protected areas using Landsat time series in Google Earth Engine. Unpublished manuscript.

Bernhard, K.P. (2023, working paper). Why is conservation sometimes bad policy in Sub-Saharan Africa?: A systematic review identifying failure to account for mechanisms of human behavior in protected areas management literatures. Unpublished manuscript.

Bernhard, K.P. (2022, working paper). Does good governance help or hurt biodiversity conservation? Case study: Exploring the impact of governance ‘neighborhood effects’ on African elephant poaching using spatial econometric techniques. Unpublished manuscript.

Technical reports, preprints:

Bernhard, K.P., Zenobi, S., & Shapiro, A. C. (2021, preprint). Understanding and predicting socioeconomic determinants of deforestation in Vietnam's Central Annamites Landscape (CAL): Pilot study implementing a spatial econometric approach. June 2019, revised for preprint March 2021. Pilot study and technical report for World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) - Greater Mekong. bioRxiv. DOI.

Bernhard, K.P. (2020, technical report). Understanding and predicting socioeconomic and conflict-based drivers of deforestation in the transboundary Dawna Tenasserim Landscape of Thailand and Myanmar: A spatial econometric approach. Study for World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) - Greater Mekong.

Computing novel variations of Human Development and Multidimensional Poverty Indexes to understand household resilience to shocks (e.g., COVID-19, environmental degradation) in developing & conflict-affected contexts

Working paper in preparation for peer-review:

Bernhard, K.P., Muhumuza, T., Ssennono, V., & Wasswa, F. (2021, working paper). Has the history of resilience to past shocks at the household level influenced economic resilience to COVID-19? Evidence from household panel surveys in Uganda. Unpublished manuscript.

Technical reports, working papers, policy briefs:

Published or internal research conducted while serving in technical roles for UNDP Country Offices, in chronological order.

UNDP Yemen (2022). Multidimensional Vulnerability Index for MSMEs in Yemen. Baseline and Endline Reports.

UNDP Yemen (2022). Building resilient livelihoods in Yemen: Stories from ERRYII - Integrating qualitative, quantitative, & spatial data to tell impact stories from livelihoods interventions in UNDP Yemen's ERRYII project. Report available in ArcGIS StoryMap format.

UNDP Regional Bureau for Africa (2021). Reimagining the Future of the Sahel: Towards Inclusive, Sustainable and Resilient Societies - Human Development Analysis and Statistical Update for the Sahel. [Report in progress].

UNDP Regional Bureau for Africa (2021). Computing a Human Security Index for the Horn of Africa Subregion [Report in progress]. Background study to the Subregional Human Development Report on Human Security in the Horn of Africa Subregion.

Workie, Y., Reyes, R., Cases, S.K., Bernhard, K.P., et al. (2021). Scenarios for Potential COVID-19 Impact on Human Development in Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, Philippines [Computation and statistical brief to support The Socioeconomic Impact Assessment of COVID-19 in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao]. UNDP Philippines.

UN in Uganda (2020). Leaving No One Behind From the COVID-19 Response to Recovery and Resilience Building: Analyses of the Socioeconomic Impact of COVID-19 in Uganda. Full Report, Policy Brief, and Analytics Fact Sheet.

UNDP Rwanda (2020). Estimating the socioeconomic impact of COVID-19 in Rwanda: Scenarios of shifting household poverty dynamics & human development [Policy brief and background study to Socioeconomic Impact of COVID-19 in Rwanda].

UNDP Uganda (2020). Socioeconomic impact of COVID-19 in Uganda: Short, medium, and long-term impact on poverty dynamics and SDGs using scenario analysis and system dynamics modeling [Background study for UN Interagency Report ( see UN in Uganda, 2020)]. Policy Brief.

Bernhard, K.P., Prouteau, T. (2020). Comparing Multidimensional Poverty between Refugees and their Host Communities in Uganda [Working paper prepared for Emergency Response and Resilience Strategy Unit]. UNDP Uganda.

UNDP Uganda (2020). Estimating Vulnerability to Poverty and the Dynamics of Resilience to Shocks: Laying the foundation to Leave No One Behind in Uganda [Background study for Uganda’s Poverty Status Report 2021].

Bernhard, K.P., Prouteau, T. (2019). Livelihoods and Resilience Sector Mapping for Uganda Refugee Response: Host community to refugee beneficiary ratio by district and objective [Data dashboard prepared for Emergency Response and Resilience Strategy Unit]. UNDP Uganda.

UNDP Rwanda (2019). Linking Rwanda’s Home-Grown Solutions to Human Development: A quantitative and spatial approach [Background study for the 3rd National Human Development Report Rwanda - Development Policy Innovations and Human Development in Rwanda: The Case of Rwanda’s Home-Grown Solutions].

Science communication, podcasts, blogs, and other press

TedX Kigali - Climate Change Countdown: “The Problem with Climate Resilience”

Penn State Graduate School News: “Forty graduate students honored with prestigious University awards”

Google Geo for Good Summit: “Mapping a Greener Future: Insights & Metrics 4 Conservation”

UNDP Massive Open Online Course Lesson: “Developing a Multidimensional Poverty Index for Refugees in Uganda”

London School of Economics Development Blog: “Cutting Edge Issues in Development: Land, Law and Development — Lessons from the Recent Global Land Rush”

Oryx: The International Journal of Conservation Blog: “Is conservation helping communities, and vice versa?”

DevDive Podcast: “Episode 9 - Social conditions, human rights, and the environment”

Featured work

Below are interactive ArcGIS StoryMaps for two projects (they may take a minute or two to load):

• A transdisciplinary, mixed-methods project undertaken during my doctoral coursework, georeferencing historic mill dam sites and interviewing community members residing in those areas, to understand the environmental history and human-environment interactions of the upper Chesapeake Bay Watershed in USA;

• Exploring the development of the UN FAO + Central African Forest Initiative (CAFI) Drivers of Deforestation dataset for Central Africa’s Congo Basin forests. The FAO team produced this deep dive into the dataset that I analyzed as part of my contribution to two FAO Forestry Division projects in Congo Basin and the subsequent Congo Basin/Central Africa papers published above (Bernhard et al., 2024; Bernhard et al., 2023).